“Current social distancing efforts starting March 15 have paused the growth of the epidemic in the Commonwealth of Virginia. In this scenario, “paused” growth means that the rate of new cases is holding steady rather than increasing.”

View yesterday’s Governor’s briefing here.

Key takeaways from infectious disease models developed by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute include:

  • Current social distancing efforts starting March 15 have paused the growth of the epidemic in the Commonwealth of Virginia. In this scenario, “paused” growth means that the rate of new cases is holding steady rather than increasing.

  • Current trends suggest that Virginia’s statewide hospital bed capacity will be sufficient in the near future.

  • Lifting social distancing restrictions too soon can quickly lead to a second wave.

And:

“Currently, it appears as if the Commonwealth of Virginia is tracking with the pause scenario, which means that the residents of Virginia are doing an excellent job with mitigation,” said Bryan Lewis, Research Associate Professor for the Network Systems Science and Advanced Computing division for the Institute.

Additional links from Press Release includes:

RAND Healthcare Virginia COVID19 Models Initial Analysis.

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