From an email:

To: City Council; Constitutional Officers and Appointed Officials; Department Directors
Cc: Executive Assistants; Media and Communications; Media and Communications
Subject: Nor’easter SANDY Update #9

At today’s 0900 Monday City Manager we are confident our projections remain valid. Our current challenge is the ongoing high tide and its stacking impacts in the Lynnhaven and Elizabeth River Basins. We are also seeing an increase in the number of road overtopping by storm water ponding. Road closures are being updated on our Hurricane Sandy webpage every two hours. Total rainfall amounts so far vary throughout the City from 2.8 inches to as much as 4.9 inches. We are expecting a change in wind direction to occur late this afternoon.

Our most significant issue remains tidal stacking within the Lynnhaven and Elizabeth River basins creating low level residential flooding. Throughout today our Public Safety and Public Works teams are on the ground monitoring the effects of the ongoing high tide. Projected NWS storm surge will result in a high tide +7 feet above MLLW. This confirms our analysis that tide cycle stacking in the Lynnhaven and the Elizabeth River neighborhoods will result in significant tidal flooding up to elevation 6 feet above sea level. Our neighborhood specific inundation maps have indicate areas below 6 feet above sea level so citizens can make their assessments as to impacts of localized tidal flooding. We remain confident the Historical Tidal & Surge Chart is projecting where Sandy’s high tide elevations above Mean Low Water Level will be in relation to our previous storms. This additional information is being posted on our VBgov website. Here is the link.

http://www.vbgov.com/residents/emergency-preparedness/Pages/hurricane-sandy.aspx

Sustained wind projections have stabilized however the attached charts reflect a significant wind direction change and increased window of gusting will occur late afternoon today. Winds will make a dramatic shift from NW to SW and we should be guarded as to the effects this may have on our canopy. As Sandy makes another turn mid afternoon its projected path will actually bring the storm closer to Virginia Beach – hence our concern regarding impacts of the wind direction change. Winds still will not reach hurricane force and we do not believe sustained tropical force winds (39-74mph) will be reached either. We do however anticipate tropical force gusts that may occasionally reach the mid-fifties. The severity of this nor’eastercane is subsiding though the consistency of the winds will continue until after daylight Tuesday morning. Dom Power reported customer outages stands at 1500 of which 1200 are the result of an accident on Northhampton Blvd that toppled a power pol .
Storm surge has been most dramatic. Atlantic wave height throughout the day has been spectacular with some reaching the projected 15 foot level ; Bay wave height is nearing 8 feet with 9 foot waves being experience further into the bay. Beach erosion observations indicate our Atlantic beaches are faring well. On the Bay the Cape Henry, Ocean Park and Baylake Pines beaches are also holding however the Chesapeake Beach which had little buffer continues losing what little dune system it had. Indications are we are experiencing some structural damage and tidal surge flooding. Public Works is documenting these instances.
Rain is our 4th threat. Some areas of the City may receive up to 7 inches. Rain intensity has been steady but moderate. Projections are we could receive an additional +3 inches before the storm is over. Rains will continue through Tuesday mid-day. Surface ponding is occurring as runoff is being hindered due to elevated levels of the Lynnhaven and Elizabeth Rivers. Back Bay and the North Landing are seeing significant low levels based on the northerly winds pushing the water south and out to the Currituck and Albemarle. Storm water crews are responding to ponding issues. The police are providing high water traffic control. Impassable roads being listed on our storm webpage.
The duration of Sandy continues to make this storm a significant event. Weather conditions have stabilized and will remain consistent through this evening. After midnight we can expect to see a very slow lessening of the storms wind/rain consistency into some intermittency all day Tuesday.

Other highlights from this morning’s staff update:

· We have attached todays 0800 SITREP taken from our WEBEOC reporting database. It gives insight into the myriad actions and issues the departments are wrestling with.

· The Birdneck ES shelter remains open today. Currently reporting @53 individuals enjoying a warm, dry, friendly environment.

· The EOC continues operating under a partial activation.

· City services and staffing will operate under essential conditions beginning throughout Monday. Decisions regarding tomorrows City operational status will be made midafternoon today following our next regional and NWS VTC.

· VB Public Schools are closed today and will also determine their operating status sometime later today.

· The next regional VTC and NMS update is scheduled for 1330 this afternoon.

· It was commented this morning that the winds did not cause our foliage to leave its branches and when Sandy is over we are looking forward to the cornucopia of color our vivid canopy will provide us.

Will keep you advised. Dave

Dave Hansen
Deputy City Manager
City of Virginia Beach
EOC contact # 757-385-0705

(Note: there is a 17 page pdf that goes with this. I am unable to upload at this time.)

Note: this info is from several different people.

UPDATE: 10:29am Both 385-5000 Public Safety and 385-3111 Information confirm Lesner Bridge is “closed”.
Editors note: I’m viewing traffic traveling both directions on Shore Drive in front of Salty C’s.

From VBGov.com Hurricane Sandy Page

City Manager Powerpoint Saturday Afternoon Presentation (23 page PDF)

From an email:

This morning’s 1000 City Manager’s update on Hurricane Sandy’s observed and projected impacts to Virginia Beach remain reasonably consistent with our last two updates.

Our most significant issue remains tidal stacking within the Lynnhaven and Elizabeth River basins creating a high risk for low level residential flooding. This morning’s high tide within the Lynnhaven was as predicted @ 2 -2 ½ feet above normal. We observed road inundation in many of the waterfront low lying areas within the Lynnhaven and Rudee basins. We will be closely monitoring the endangered neighborhoods and we are continuing our use of Reverse 911 VB Alert system to notify residents of the risk in those specific neighborhoods. The results of these efforts are being posted on our Hurricane Sandy webpage. Staff continues developing Sandy specific inundation maps to better identify impacts. The number of above high/low tide cycles stacking within the Lynnhaven, Elizabeth and Rudee basin leads us to project that properties whose elevation is below 6 feet above sea level are at great risk to tidal inundation. We remain confident the Historical Tidal & Surge Chart is projecting where Sandy’s high tide elevations above Mean Low Water Level will be in relation to our previous storms. This additional information is being posted on our VBgov website.

Sustained wind projections have increased slightly but still will not reach hurricane force and sustained tropical force winds (39-74mph) may be reached. We do however anticipate tropical force gusts that may occasionally reach 60 mph. As the storm remains offshore and is hooking around VB we will begin to experience consistent wind this afternoon. The extended severity of this nor’eastercane will set in early this afternoon and remain consistent thru tomorrow afternoon. Dom Power reported customer outages has grown to 2500.

Storm surge poses our third threat. Atlantic wave height projection has grown to +15 feet; Bay wave height has grown to 9 feet. Beach erosion will definitely be significant. This morning’s waves on high tide lapped at the base of the Grommet Park berm.

Rain is our 4th threat. Some areas of the City may receive up to 7 inches. This is a slight increase in the projection. Surface ponding will occur as runoff will be hindered due to elevated levels of the Lynnhaven, Elizabeth and North Landing Rivers. Back Bay is seeing significant low levels based on the northerly winds pushing the water south and out to the Currituck. Storm water crews are responding to ponding issues. The police are bringing in additional assets to assist in high water traffic control. We are working on a reporting tool to post this data on the Hurricane Sandy webpage

Duration of Sandy continues to make this storm a significant event. Weather conditions continue to deteriorate and stretch into the new work week. The most intense period of the storm has lengthened and is projected to be Sunday afternoon thru Tuesday early morning. During this intense period will see sustained winds just touching the threshold for tropical storms.

Decisions made at this morning’s meeting:

· The Birdneck ES shelter opened on time this morning at 10AM.

· The EOC will operate under a partial activation effective 1200 (noon) today.

· City services and staffing will operate under essential conditions beginning 0600 Monday until further notice.

· VB Public Schools have just notified the EOC they will be closed Monday.

· The next City Manager staff update is 5PM today.

Will keep you advised. Dave

Emphasis ours.

Boat Ramp high tide #1 this morning.

Boat Ramp low tide #1

(Note: the tide photos were not necessarily taken at peak hi and peak lo)

SANDY UPDATE AT VBGOV.COM

From an email to Empsy from Council Jim Wood:

Subject: Nor’eastercane SANDY Update #5
The 0900 City Manager and 1000 VDEM updates have revealed Sandy’s impacts to Virginia Beach have slipped further into the start of this coming work week. We are predicting on Monday the City will still be experiencing significant effects of the nor’eastercane which may last into Tuesday. The second significant change we have deduced is that the storm tide impacts projection has lessened slightly. We have attached this morning’s briefing charts.(Editors note: I did not receive these briefing charts as of the time of this post.) Addressing the 5 key parameters, here is the latest:

1. Most significant issue remains tidal stacking within the Lynnhaven basin. High risk to low level residential flooding . We will be closely monitoring the endangered neighborhoods and at this time have not issued any evacuation directives. Staff is developing a Sandy specific inundation map utilizing current projections applied to the Corps of Engineers Surge Data map for a Cat 1 storm. The number of high/low tide cycles is now more comparable to the number and elevation we experienced in the 2006 Thanksgiving Nor’easter. We have used the Historical Tidal & Surge Chart to indicate where Sandy’s high tide elevations above Mean Low Water Level will be. We expect to be able to issue specific neighborhood flood warnings Sunday morning.

2. Sustained wind, is still not expected to reach hurricane force (only a 3% chance) and sustained tropical force winds are not expected either (a 9% chance). We do however anticipate tropical force gusts (+35% chance). As the storm remains offshore and is hooking around VB we will begin to experience consistent wind Sunday morning and expect it to last for over 62 hours into Tuesday. This lengthy duration will surely cause tree and debris knock down which in turn will cause power outages. Dominion’s weather advisory of 10:47AM this morning is attached. No change to their amber rating here in Tidewater. Currently 1800 customers are without power in VB.

3. Storm surge poses our third threat. Atlantic wave height projection has grown to +15 feet; Bay wave height has grown to 9 feet. Beach erosion will definitely be significant.

4. Rain is our 4th threat. Some areas of the City may receive up to 6 inches. Surface ponding will occur as runoff will be hindered due to elevated levels of the Lynnhaven, Elizabeth and North Landing Rivers, Back Bay and the many lakes and ponds throughout the City. The intensity projections of the rain may be lessening towards a more consistent downfall for a longer period.

5. Duration of Sandy continues to make this storm a significant event. Weather conditions will deteriorate later than first predicted and stretch into the new work week. Deteriorating conditions will begin after midnight tonight and impact the City thru Tuesday evening. The most intense period of the storm has lengthened and is projected to be Sunday afternoon thru Monday evening. During this intense period will see sustained wind of +30mph for nearly 30 hours. (30/30 effect)

Decisions we are assessing are: Public Schools for Monday, Shelter openings, EOC activation and City operational status for Monday. VBCPS, DHS and the Sherriff Office have been issued an internal warning order to plan/prepare for possible opening the Birdneck ES shelter Sunday morning. The next City Manager staff update is 1500 this afternoon. City staff continues to function under a normal operation status. The EOC is currently operating with EOC staff only except for staff updates. The ECCS 311 staff shifts to 24 hour operations effective 0700 Sunday morning. Current call volume is down and the frequently asked inquiries are: absentee voting and sheltering. Current closings for Sunday include: the Virginia Aquarium and Science Center and the Historic Houses. The VB Visitors Centers at First Landing State Park and the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Center will be closed on Sunday and Monday. Decisions on libraries and rec centers will occur following the 1500 update. US Dept of Homeland Security Advisor Milicich is participating in our staff analysis process. Will keep you advised.

Emphasis ours.

The City and the Bayfront Advisory Committee has provided the following helpful documents regarding the potential impact of Hurricane Sandy to our area.

NOAA Briefing Overview with helpful weblinks – Click here to read the overview NWSWakefield_SandyBriefing_Oct25

Storm Surge – Surge potential of 2-3 feet will combine with astronomically high tides resulting in moderate coastal flooding. Highest potential for moderate flooding is along the entire coast and lower Bay (including Hampton Roads) Sun/Mon.

Dominion Weather Statement – the item to note in this statement is the predicted storm surge for the Sunday morning and evening tides. The past noreasters were surges of 8 feet plus. Click here to read the statement DWxC_Statement_-_20121025_1024

High tides near the mouth of the Bay will peak between roughly three and four feet, while in the Outer Banks Atlantic tides will peak between roughly four and five feet.